Russia's GDP growth is expected to reach 3.9%-4% in 2024
Russia's GDP growth is expected to reach 3.9%-4% in 2024, and the government and the Central Bank are planning a soft landing with 2%-2.5% growth in 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in his Q&A session combined with the end-of-year press conference.
Forecasts of the Central Bank and the Economic Development Ministry for 2025 differ quite significantly.
The Central Bank raised the key rate from 19% to 21% in October, and confirmed its outlook for Russia's GDP growth in 2025 at only 0.5%-1.5%.
The official forecast given by the Economic Development Ministry in September, which was included in the 2025 budget, says the GDP will grow 2.5% in 2025. The current stringent monetary policy makes this forecast look quite optimistic.
A consensus forecast of analysts polled by Interfax in early December is a 1.5% GDP growth in Russia in 2025.
Photo credit: @Elena.Krizhevskaya
The Bank of Russia has resumed regular operations under the fiscal rule on the domestic foreign exchange market, which were suspended from November 28, 2024, starting January 9, 2025.
From January 15 to June 30, 2025, the Central Bank will buy or sell foreign currency based on the amount of fiscal rule-based operations announced every month by the Finance Ministry adjusted for the amount to be sold, totaling 8.86 bln rubles ($85 mln) per day.
The Bank of Russia has restricted for non-qualified investors the possibility of acquiring foreign securities, except those issued by issuers from countries of the Eurasian Economic Union and international financial organizations, which are accounted for in the infrastructure of the EAEU. The corresponding instruction of the regulator came into force on January 1.
Foreign citizens and stateless persons entering or leaving Russia have been submitting biometric data since June 30, 2025 at all border checkpoints.
Income tax changes in 2025 in Russia
Starting from January 1, 2025, a five-stage progressive personal income tax scale with a maximum rate of 22% will come into effect.
Each of the new rates will not apply to the entire income, but only to the amount exceeding the threshold level of the previous level.
▫️13% if annual income is less than 2.4 million rubles
▫️15% - income from 2.4 to 5 million rubles
▫️18% - from 5 to 20 million rubles
▫️20% - from 20 to 50 million rubles
▫️22% - annual income is more than 50 million rubles
Exceptions
▫️ Income related to the special military operation
▫️ Regional coefficients and allowances for workers employed in the far north and equated areas.
The tax rate for the self-employed will remain unchanged :
▫️ 4% on income of self-employed citizens without sole proprietorship status
▫️ 6% on income from sole proprietorships and companies with an annual limit of 2.4 million rubles.
GSA Expert – Market Intelligence & Research Agency
IE Anna Shebanova
TIN 614702950701
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